India could be left hanging

The UPA has won the confidence vote in Parliament today, and staved off elections for a while - perhaps till February-March 2009. However, the churning of the political pot that this trust vote has caused will only pick up force in the interim. We now have a preliminary view of the shape of things to come. For one, Mayawati has emerged as a prime ministerial contender at least one election before anyone expected. The channels yesterday and today were full of talk about how she has stolen the thunder of being the main opposition from Advani.
This is correct; she did indeed make an impression.
Q: What next?
Well, I'd say, yes, a new Third Front. But not one that's likely to win a majority in Parliament.
In 2004, the BJP won 138 seats, the Congress won 145, CPI and CPM together won 53, BSP won 19, TDP 5. Constituents of the NDA and UPA including parties like the NCP, RJD and DMK won significant numbers of seats in the home states of their leaders.
The alliances have been tested and apparently firmed up by this trial of trust. In other words, the 'Third Front', if there is to be one, will stand without any Lok Sabha seat-winners anywhere outside UP, Kerala, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh. Deve Gowda in Karnataka has 3 MPs, and lost one to the Congress today. He cannot hope to better his tally, and is likely to remain politically insignificant at the Centre. Other constituents would be similarly insignificant.
In UP, Mayawati and her new allies led by Ajit Singh will come up against an SP-Congress alliance, which is a force to reckon with. The BJP is also a contender in 10 seats out of 80. In Kerala, the Left Front will come up against the pressures of incumbency and a charged Congress. In Andhra, Chandrababu will have a new threat from filmstar Chiranjeevi, who is launching a political party. His tally of 5 is unlikely to improve much. That leaves Bengal, where the Left appears comfortable - but a Trinamool-Congress alliance would significantly dent Left prospects. Mamata abstained today, so that option remains open.
In other words, the Third Front will do well to cross 110 seats.
Assuming the BJP gains a few, and Congress loses a few, as trends would appear to indicate they will, we're looking at a Parliament where no group has a majority.
Wonder how the bribes to MPs issue will play out.